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Sensing an Opening — GOP Presidential Field Explodes

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Insights and Market Perspectives

Sensing an Opening — GOP Presidential Field Explodes

Author: Greg Valliere

November 18, 2022

DONALD TRUMP’S FLAT SPEECH this week, announcing his run for the presidency, simply encouraged Republicans who are now testing the waters for 2024. It’s a potentially huge field — here’s our look at the early Top Ten:

In the running: Govs. Asa Hutchinson (Ark.), Chris Sununu (N.H.), Kristi Noem (S.D.), Greg Abbott (Tex.), former Gov. Chris Christie (N.J.) and Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.).

10. Liz Cheney: She could win 25% of the vote in New Hampshire and last through several primaries, but Cheney would encounter fierce opposition from the party’s base.

9. Larry Hogan: He’s not well known throughout the country, but the blunt spoken governor of Maryland is leaning toward running. A moderate on some issues and a conservative on others, Hogan is a genuine dark horse.

8. Ted Cruz: He’s running, and not concealing his ambition. Cruz clearly is hoping that Trump will fade; he could pick up lots of the former president’s supporters. The issue with Cruz, as always, is his personality.

7. Mike Pompeo: Fifty pounds lighter than when we last saw him, the former Secretary of State almost certainly is running. If geopolitics is the key issue, Pompeo could surprise.

6. Nikki Haley: Ditto for Haley, a logical candidate if foreign policy is dominant. The bright and likeable former Governor and United Nations ambassador, an Indian-American, Haley would be an intriguing candidate.

5. Tim Scott: An affable South Carolina conservative, Scott — the party’s leading African-American — has raised more money than most everyone on this list. He’s ready to run if Trump stumbles.

4. Mike Pence: He’s been resurrected, even by the Washington press corps, and he has solid backing from Christian conservatives. Still, it’s difficult to envision Pence winning lots of primaries.

3. Glen Youngkin: The Virginia governor has some charisma and tons of his own money to finance a campaign. He’s the rising star, looking and sounding like a moderate even though he has solid conservative credentials. If schools and social issues are still dominant in 2024, Youngkin could surge. His standing in the party soared this fall as he campaigned for Republican candidates.

2. Donald Trump: He still has support among conservative voters, even as the party’s establishment roots for his demise. Does Trump have the fire for another campaign? That was unclear in his speech this week. And like Joe Biden, who turns 80 tomorrow, Trump, 76, has an age issue. The mantra within the party was stunning this week: it may be time to move on.

1. Ron DeSantis: He’s 44, and that’s an asset as the country looks for fresh faces. DeSantis has growing support within the party and almost certainly will run in 2024; he’s not prepared to wait until 2028. But it’s not enough for DeSantis to argue that he’s the Trump alternative; DeSantis needs to explain why he’s a plausible president.

BOTTOM LINE: As with the Democrats, the Republicans need fresh faces. DeSantis is the GOP candidate to watch in 2023, but in a two-year nomination battle, an even fresher face — Youngkin — may become a very serious challenger.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

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©2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

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