Six Stories to Watch Immediately After the Election
Author: Greg Valliere
November 4, 2022
1. Recounts and allegations: Several elections may not be decided until late
November; we think there could be a half dozen high-profile recounts. More ominously, there will be inevitable charges of voting fraud, as the U.S. democracy continues to teeter and Americans increasingly lose faith in elections.
2. The next campaign: It will begin on election night. Several candidates will either hint at running for the presidency in 2024 or will actually announce — by Christmas or sooner — that they’re running. An epic struggle between Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis is likely for the GOP nomination; there’s a widespread consensus in Washington that Trump will be indicted by winter.
3. What will Congress do? A lame duck session, perhaps not ending until Christmas Eve, will focus largely on spending issues. A massive budget bill will address two important issues: First, raising (or eliminating) the debt ceiling, in an effort to prevent a U.S. default in 2023. Second, a massive military and economic aid package for Ukraine, before voter opposition to this aid becomes even louder.
4. The long cold war: Will resolve falter in much of the West for making the sacrifices necessary to keep Russia on the defensive? This will be the biggest geopolitical issue after Thanksgiving, although other serious issues will persist. Iran, in a de facto war with the right wing government in Israel, will be an increasing threat to global stability.
5. The House-Cleaning: Within days of the U.S. election, a house-cleaning will be leaked by the White House, which will lead to the ousting of several officials,
especially those who will be blamed for the erratic economy. Some will jump, others will be pushed. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and White House chief of staff Ron Klain may be the most prominent officials to leave.
6. What Will Joe Biden Do? Biden aides have whispered that he will run again, but we continue to believe that he won’t. It may not be voluntary — Democrats don’t want him to run again. The political speculation by Thanksgiving will focus on Biden, but other enormous stories — Trump indictments, geopolitics and voter fraud — will dominate this city.
IN THE OLD DAYS, elections were cathartic, lowering the temperature in Washington, leading to a political quiet period during the holidays. The old days are gone, and the markets will have to factor in political risk as a lame duck president faces several huge challenges as the holidays approach.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.