Six Stories to Watch Immediately After the Election
Author: Greg Valliere
November 4, 2022
1. Recounts and allegations: Several elections may not be decided until late
November; we think there could be a half dozen high-profile recounts. More ominously, there will be inevitable charges of voting fraud, as the U.S. democracy continues to teeter and Americans increasingly lose faith in elections.
2. The next campaign: It will begin on election night. Several candidates will either hint at running for the presidency in 2024 or will actually announce — by Christmas or sooner — that they’re running. An epic struggle between Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis is likely for the GOP nomination; there’s a widespread consensus in Washington that Trump will be indicted by winter.
3. What will Congress do? A lame duck session, perhaps not ending until Christmas Eve, will focus largely on spending issues. A massive budget bill will address two important issues: First, raising (or eliminating) the debt ceiling, in an effort to prevent a U.S. default in 2023. Second, a massive military and economic aid package for Ukraine, before voter opposition to this aid becomes even louder.
4. The long cold war: Will resolve falter in much of the West for making the sacrifices necessary to keep Russia on the defensive? This will be the biggest geopolitical issue after Thanksgiving, although other serious issues will persist. Iran, in a de facto war with the right wing government in Israel, will be an increasing threat to global stability.
5. The House-Cleaning: Within days of the U.S. election, a house-cleaning will be leaked by the White House, which will lead to the ousting of several officials,
especially those who will be blamed for the erratic economy. Some will jump, others will be pushed. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and White House chief of staff Ron Klain may be the most prominent officials to leave.
6. What Will Joe Biden Do? Biden aides have whispered that he will run again, but we continue to believe that he won’t. It may not be voluntary — Democrats don’t want him to run again. The political speculation by Thanksgiving will focus on Biden, but other enormous stories — Trump indictments, geopolitics and voter fraud — will dominate this city.
IN THE OLD DAYS, elections were cathartic, lowering the temperature in Washington, leading to a political quiet period during the holidays. The old days are gone, and the markets will have to factor in political risk as a lame duck president faces several huge challenges as the holidays approach.
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