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Special Counsel Scrambles the Election

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Special Counsel Scrambles the Election

Author: Greg Valliere

August 14, 2023

A GAME CHANGER? The appointment of a special counsel to investigate Hunter Biden, announced when no one was paying attention last Friday afternoon, shook up the Washington political climate. It reinforced a growing likelihood that Donald Trump has a plausible path to the GOP nomination — and, perhaps, another term as president — despite his unprecedented legal challenges.

SOME REPUBLICANS REACTED ANGRILY that the special counsel is David Weiss, who helped author what they called a “sweetheart deal” earlier this summer that fell apart when Hunter Biden refused to accept terms of a plea bargain on tax and gun charges.

WEISS WILL GET EXPANDED investigative and subpoena powers just as the 2024 election campaign heats up. Democrats we spoke with over the past weekend were alarmed because special counsels often stray far from the initial charges; our sources cited the sweeping investigation that morphed from a failed Bill Clinton land deal to an eventual impeachment trial for perjury in 1999.

COULD WEISS USE HIS NEW POWERS to delve into the details of Hunter Biden’s specific business dealings with Chinese officials? Could there be charges that Hunter Biden failed to register as a foreign lobbyist, which is a felony? It’s possible that Hunter Biden will face new charges.

WE’RE NOT PERSUADED THAT JOE BIDEN faces impeachment (or conviction), but this increasingly looks like a great distraction for him, depriving the president from making an argument focused on Trump’s legal woes.

SUDDENLY, THE NARRATIVE HAS SHIFTED: This was best summarized by the New York Times reporter Peter Baker on Saturday morning. “A trial by a jury of Hunter Biden’s peers would be a spectacle that could prove distracting and embarrassing for the White House while providing more fodder to the president’s Republican critics,” Baker wrote.

AMERICAN VOTERS care more about the economy than the Hunter Biden case, but the economy hardly is a plus for the White House; the electorate still worries about inflation and President Biden gets poor grades for his handling of the economy.

WITH TRUMP LEADING OVERWHELMINGLY for the GOP presidential nomination, nervous Democrats are asking whether a challenge to Biden’s nomination is warranted. It’s sinking in among Democrats — Trump could win another term, a prospect that almost certainly would lure a serious Democratic challenger into the race by fall, just as the Hunter Biden probe is heating up.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

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©2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

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