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Still Another Hot Spot — Unrest Erupts in Iran

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Insights and Market Perspectives

Still Another Hot Spot — Unrest Erupts in Iran

Author: Greg Valliere

September 22, 2022

RUSSIA ISN’T THE ONLY COUNTRY that faces violent unrest: Protests have intensified in Iran, led by angry women who want to abolish the country’s repressive “morality police.”

IN THIS ERA OF SOCIAL MEDIA, cellphone videos of police beatings go viral virtually instantly — and often intensify the protests, as Vladimir Putin is about to discover.

AN INTRIGUING UPRISING MAY BE UNDERWAY IN IRAN, in the wake of the death of Mahsa Amini, a protester who was beaten and died last week in police custody. The Iranian government said, unconvincingly, that the 22-year-old woman had a heart attack.

SINCE HER DEATH, PROTESTS HAVE ERUPTED — especially in Kurdish regions, as women have burned their headscarves and chanted “Death to Dictators,” referring to ultraconservative President Ebrahim Raisi and the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Both have given wide latitude to the Morality Police; seven protesters have been killed, mostly by live ammunition.

THE PROTESTS HAVE NOW SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY, including Tehran, where young people in universities want more freedom. And the country’s economy is crippled by Western sanctions that won’t be lifted until there’s a nuclear deal, which does not appear to be imminent.

MOST ANALYSTS BELIEVE IRAN will have a crude nuclear bomb within months, although a delivery system isn’t ready yet. But this has prompted Israel to launch a pre-emptive de facto war targeting Iran’s scientists and labs with assassinations and drone attacks.

GEOPOLITICS ARE ESPECIALLY VOLATILE NOW: Threats from Russia, Iran, China and North Korea have produced this conclusion — the most dominant investment theme in Washington is continued huge increases in defense spending.

MOST REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS will support greater Pentagon outlays, as defense spending hits $800 billion annually within the next couple of years. A particular focus will be shipbuilding, as instability persists in the Persian Gulf and the South China Sea.
* * * * *

EDITOR’S NOTE: We have a super-early flight tomorrow and won’t publish.
Back on Monday.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

For further information, please visit AGF.com.

©2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

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