Support for Ukraine is Slipping; Epic Trump-DeSantis Battle Has Begun
Author: Greg Valliere
November 7, 2022
THE WASHINGTON POST reported this weekend that U.S. officials have told Zelensky and his top aides that Ukraine needs to send signals that it is willing to negotiate a deal to end the war. That would make Ukraine’s allies more likely to continue generous military and economic aid, officials in Washington believe.
THROUGHOUT THE WEST, THERE’S GROWING OPPOSITION to massive aid to Ukraine, especially in the U.S., where Republicans are making this closing argument in the election campaign: why should the U.S. spend billions more? And in much of Western Europe, there’s growing opposition to making sacrifices this winter if Ukraine won’t negotiate.
UKRAINIAN TROOPS ARE MAKING MODEST PROGRESS as a major battle looms in Kherson, but with winter approaching, a military breakthrough appears less likely. Can the Ukrainians prevail through the winter? Probably. The legacy of Russian atrocities has stiffened their backbones.
OUR TAKE IS THAT BY LATE WINTER, Putin and Zelensky will have to concede that a total victory by either side is unlikely. A truce followed by lengthy negotiations is likely by spring, with Kyiv getting most of the Donbas and eastern Ukraine. The key issue, of course, is who gets Crimea; Zelensky will have to compromise on this.
* * * * *
DONALD TRUMP REPORTEDLY WAS URGED by his advisers not to announce his candidacy this past weekend, which would have stepped on the GOP’s election message. Trump is itching to run and will announce before Thanksgiving. So we’re looking at a two-year campaign, even though many Republicans in this town feel Trump will be an unwelcome distraction as the party focuses on new initiatives.
TRUMP REPORTEDLY HAS BEEN WORKING on nicknames. mocking his GOP challengers; he began this past weekend by calling out “Ron DeSanctimonius.”
FLORIDA GOVERNOR DeSantis has a huge war chest and solid backing from the party’s base. He has told people we’ve talked with that he won’t wait until 2028 to run; DeSantis is running in 2024. Thus the next campaign will begin hours after this campaign ends.
IT’S FAR TOO EARLY TO MAKE A PREDICTION in this epic battle, especially with two huge wild cards: Trump’s age (76 now) and the indictments he faces soon, probably starting with his handling of top-secret documents. He will blame a witch hunt against him, a tactic that he employs adroitly.
NOT JUST REPUBLICANS FACE DIVISIONS: The likelihood of grim election returns tomorrow night will intensify calls from Democrats that Joe Biden has to go. His detractors in the party point to Biden’s feeble performance in the past few weeks, and his endless gaffes (ripping into the coal industry this weekend with the Senate race tied in coal-rich Pennsylvania).
ARE WE HEADED FOR A TRUMP-BIDEN rematch two years from now? Unlikely, in our opinion. The country wants fresh faces but Trump and Biden will offer more of the same — and the weary electorate doesn’t want more of the same, as will be apparent tomorrow night.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2022 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.