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Surging Republicans Expand Their Election Targets

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Surging Republicans Expand Their Election Targets

Author: Greg Valliere

October 28, 2022

POLITICAL STRATEGISTS AND POLLTAKERS are stunned to see Republicans surging in New England, upstate New York and in the Pacific Northwest — as reeling Democrats face a potential tidal wave on Nov. 8.

THE MOST ASTONISHING SHIFT IS IN NEW YORK STATE, where Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul was leading by about 20 points this summer. Now she’s in a cliff-hanger against Lee Zeldin, who has run a classic anti-incumbent campaign, focusing on crime and government over-reach.

IN TRADITIONAL LIBERAL STONGHOLDS like Rhode Island and Oregon, Democrats are in trouble — which tempts us to revise the forecast we made earlier this week that the GOP will win a net of 17 House seats. A gain in the mid-20s seems increasingly likely, with the GOP narrowly taking the Senate.

NOWHERE IS THIS MOMENTUM SHIFT MORE APPARENT than in Georgia, where Herschel Walker is now in a virtual tie against incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock. Walker is — hands down — the worst candidate of the fall, deeply flawed and without any discernable policy expertise, but he’s surging largely because of voter antipathy toward incumbents.

FURIOUS DEMOCRATS COMPLAIN that the Republicans have no agenda, but the GOP may not need one. All they need to do is rant about crime, excessive government spending and inflation — all of which exceed abortion in polls of issues that will drive voter turnout.

AFTER TRAVELING AROUND THE COUNTRY THIS FALL, we sense that the politicians back in Washington don’t get it — there’s high anxiety in the country over the economy, as many voters struggle to pay much higher prices, especially for food. Democrats in this city seemingly can’t relate to that anxiety.

IT’S FUTILE FOR DEMOCRATS to brag about GDP growth of 2.6% in the third quarter or the recent stock market rally; that means little to middle class voters who want a change. So the disconnect will persist, as incumbents in traditionally liberal regions — even New York !! — face a smackdown from voters who feel their concerns are not being addressed.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

For further information, please visit AGF.com.

©2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

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