Surging Republicans Expand Their Election Targets
Author: Greg Valliere
October 28, 2022
THE MOST ASTONISHING SHIFT IS IN NEW YORK STATE, where Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul was leading by about 20 points this summer. Now she’s in a cliff-hanger against Lee Zeldin, who has run a classic anti-incumbent campaign, focusing on crime and government over-reach.
IN TRADITIONAL LIBERAL STONGHOLDS like Rhode Island and Oregon, Democrats are in trouble — which tempts us to revise the forecast we made earlier this week that the GOP will win a net of 17 House seats. A gain in the mid-20s seems increasingly likely, with the GOP narrowly taking the Senate.
NOWHERE IS THIS MOMENTUM SHIFT MORE APPARENT than in Georgia, where Herschel Walker is now in a virtual tie against incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock. Walker is — hands down — the worst candidate of the fall, deeply flawed and without any discernable policy expertise, but he’s surging largely because of voter antipathy toward incumbents.
FURIOUS DEMOCRATS COMPLAIN that the Republicans have no agenda, but the GOP may not need one. All they need to do is rant about crime, excessive government spending and inflation — all of which exceed abortion in polls of issues that will drive voter turnout.
AFTER TRAVELING AROUND THE COUNTRY THIS FALL, we sense that the politicians back in Washington don’t get it — there’s high anxiety in the country over the economy, as many voters struggle to pay much higher prices, especially for food. Democrats in this city seemingly can’t relate to that anxiety.
IT’S FUTILE FOR DEMOCRATS to brag about GDP growth of 2.6% in the third quarter or the recent stock market rally; that means little to middle class voters who want a change. So the disconnect will persist, as incumbents in traditionally liberal regions — even New York !! — face a smackdown from voters who feel their concerns are not being addressed.
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