The Biggest Crisis
Author: Greg Valliere
May 22, 2025
THERE’S NO SHORTAGE OF CRISES: A bloated U.S. debt and a jittery bond market; the unwillingness of Vladimir Putin to negotiate, etc. But there’s one crisis that dwarfs all the rest: Iran.
EVERY FEW MONTHS THERE ARE SIGNALS from the ayatollahs that they are willing to negotiate, but the talks always break down with no real progress. There are signs that Israel is running out of patience.
PRESIDENT TRUMP has sent signals that if there isn’t progress in the next few weeks, the U.S. could strike Iran’s military facilities. Israel would join in.
THE ANTIPATHY TOWARD IRAN in Washington intensified overnight, as two Israeli diplomats were killed just blocks from the White House. An Israeli retaliation is likely.
THE U.S. HAS BEEFED UP its military presence in the Persian Gulf, and Israel is determined to wipe out Hamas, which is funded by Tehran. Most analysts believe Israel is prepared to attack Iranian military facilities; a strike against Iran’s vast nuclear complex in the northwest mountains is not considered imminent.
TRUMP HAS ADDED AN ELEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY: He draws lines in the sand, then backs away, making U.S. enemies and allies guessing about what he may do next,
EVEN IF THERE ARE NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES, the talks could drag on for months — giving Iran time to work on its nuclear enrichment. Could the U.S. strike Iran? That option is on the table, just where Trump wants it.
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