The Defense Spending Bill — A Political Football; An Election Like No Other Looms
Author: Greg Valliere
July 28, 2023
THE DEFENSE MEASURE USUALLY PASSES EASILY, and it did yesterday in the Senate by an 86-11 vote. But the House has narrowly passed a bill, filled with amendments on social policy, that has no chance of winning approval this fall. The Pentagon legislation is just one example of how the House and Senate will stall ahead of the Sept. 30 deadline, leading to a possible government shutdown or a “kick the can” deal to extend the deadline until December.
PERHAPS CONGRESS WILL GET AN EARFUL from voters during the August break and move quickly in September, but we doubt it. There are two major defense isues: a desire by House conservatives to load up the bill with provisions such as banning the Pentagon from spending on social issues like abortion, and a desire of fiscal hawks in the House to reduce defense spending.
FUNDING FOR UKRAINE probably will prevail; it’s only 0.33 percent of GDP. But the Ukrainians, now moving on a counter-offensive, are running out of weapons. Kyiv uses 6,000 to 8,000 artillery rounds per day.
CRIES FROM THE LEFT AND RIGHT WINGS about excessive defense spending have resulted in a drop of defense spending to about 3.2 percent of GDP, down from 5.7 percent during the Reagan-era buildup. The final budget this year will be around $880 billion, which is not enough, experts say, to produce weapons to fight for more than a few days. And U.S. shipbuilding has fallen dramatically behind China’s.
NEVERTHELESS, THE U.S. POLITICAL CLIMATE favors slowing the rate of increase in defense spending. Of the three leading presidential candidates — Joe Biden, Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis — all favor a slower defense spending increase. Republicans in the Senate are largely hawkish, but their numbers are dwindling; the leading hawk is Mitch McConnell, 81, who is in frail health.
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HEAD SCRATCHERS: How stupid are Hunter Biden’s lawyers? They were prepared to accept a plea bargain that did not grant him complete immunity, but Biden — a Yale Law School graduate — wisely refused to agree to the deal. Didn’t federal prosecutors and Biden’s lawyers agree on the details before heading to court?
ANOTHER HEAD SCRATCHER is Donald Trump’s alleged destruction of evidence at Mar-a-Lago, stupidly violating one of the oldest rules in political scandals — it’s not the crime, it’s the cover-up. If there’s clear evidence that Trump erased tapes — like Richard Nixon — Trump is in very deep trouble.
THE PROSPECT OF AN EXPLOSIVE TRIAL — OR TRIALS — during the 2024 presidential campaign is becoming more and more likely. So we’re looking at an election between Trump, facing several indictments, and Joe Biden, who almost
certainly was not truthful when he claimed he never discussed business with his son. It will be a presidential race like none other.
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