The Donald Trump Knockout Strategy
Author: Greg Valliere
January 3, 2024
January 3, 2024
DONALD TRUMP’S CAMPAIGN ADVISERS believe they can wrap up the Republican nomination on Super Tuesday, March 5, when the former president is likely to win nearly all of the 15 state primaries.
EVEN IF TRUMP’S WINNING MARGINS slip in Iowa on Jan. 15 and in New Hampshire on Jan. 23, polls show him comfortably ahead. He’s headed for a landslide in Iowa, with a closer margin likely in New Hampshire, where Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis have a chance to exceed 20%.
AFTER A QUIET FEBRUARY, highlighted by the South Carolina primary — and a Trump victory — on the 24th, the stakes will be huge on Super Tuesday, when more than a third of all the GOP delegates will be at stake, the biggest haul of any single date on the primary calendar.
STATES WITH ELECTIONS ON SUPER TUESDAY include Alabama, Arkansas, Alaska, California, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia. It’s possible that Trump could win ALL of these states — even Maine, assuming his ballot status has been resolved by the Supreme Court by then.
BY EARLY SPRING, THEREFORE, TRUMP COULD BE THE PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE, focusing on fundraising and campaign events in states that will be crucial in the fall. It’s possible that he will have no serious opponent by spring — although the media, desperate for some excitement, may hype this as a close race. It isn’t.
POLITICAL OBSERVERS believe Trump’s ground operation is far more disciplined and focused than four years ago, and they agree that the former president hasn’t been hurt — and may have been helped — by his legal issues. Trump’s support in Iowa has been rock solid as he barnstorms through the state.
IT’S STILL TOO EARLY to make a definitive call on the November election; both Trump and Joe Biden veer off script frequently. Most nationwide polls have Trump ahead of Biden by 2 or 3 points, within the margin of error. But there’s little doubt that Trump will be the GOP nominee, which should be clear within two months.
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