The Election Fallout
Author: Greg Valliere
November 5, 2025
There were only a few elections yesterday, so you could argue that there was a very small sample. But the margins and internal polls were a clear repudiation of Donald Trump and the Republicans, with major implications.
Our bottom line: the House is now in play next fall, and the Democrats are finally showing signs of life.
Ironically, the only positive news for the GOP was the strong showing by socialist Zohran Mamdani in New York City. What a foil for the Republicans to run against; Trump is already calling Mamdani a Communist.
We think Mamdani will move immediately to meet with Wall Street execs, the police and fire unions, and moderate Democrats who must be stunned this morning. Mamdani will be under intense scrutiny, especially on tax policy.
Democrats did well in two gubernatorial races, and Gavin Newsom won a referendum that will open the gates for more liberal House candidates; Newsom is now the party’s leader. He surely must be encouraged to see Republicans staggered by polls that show major traction for the issue of “affordability.”
The results must infuriate Trump, who has ranted, in private, that the Republicans will lose next fall’s elections. Polls show the public wants a new strategy — and, of course, it’s all about the economy.
Trump is likely to enter the budget negotiations later this weekend. If he doesn’t, there will be “mass chaos” in the airline industry, according to Trump’s Transportation Secretary.
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