The GOP Establishment is Leery of Vance
Author: Greg Valliere
July 16, 2024
REPUBLICAN LOBBYISTS and the foreign policy establishment were uneasy yesterday after J.D. Vance won the GOP vice presidential nomination. He veers away from the party’s orthodoxy on issues ranging from Ukraine to regulation of big business — is he a breath of fresh air or an unpredictable rookie? Time will tell.
WE THOUGHT MARCO RUBIO made the most sense as a running mate, with his solid record on geopolitics and popularity among the party’s mainstream. But Donald Trump Jr. insisted on Vance, a gamble for the elder Trump, 78, who seemed to be slowing down even before the attempted assassination. Now he has a potential vice president who is 39 years old, still learning the ropes on Capitol Hill.
VANCE’S MANY DETRACTORS focused on three major issues:
Vance is a rhetorical bomb thrower, not a moderate, and his views on crucial issues like abortion could alienate moderate Republicans. Where will the Nikki Haley voters go?
Vance is unabashedly opposed to further aid to Ukraine, which has produced a major rift in the Senate, where Mitch McConnell and other foreign policy hawks have a dim view of Vance’s willingness to frequently shift policies.
And Washington’s top business lobbyists are leery of Vance’s support of corporate regulation and — gasp — his willingness to consider corporate tax hikes.
OUR SENSE IS THAT VANCE will be a work in progress; he’s known to be very flexible, to put it mildly. For now he’s aggressive toward Beijing and hugely profitable corporations, but that could change. Does he care about the exploding budget deficit? Trump apparently does not.
FOR NOW, VANCE WILL BE CONTENT to serve as a loyal Trump sycophant. He obviously will be a frontrunner for the 2028 nomination, along with Haley and a half dozen other rising stars.
BUT THE DEMOCRATS HAVE THEIR OWN STARS — mostly young governors who still privately lust over winning the nomination this year. We still think Biden is highly vulnerable to more gaffes and stumbles, and these governors are biding their time, not willing to concede with certainty that he will be the nominee.
SO IT’S A FLUID ENVIRONMENT, with some fresh faces, finally. And the traditional labels — Republicans as foreign policy hawks and friends of huge corporations — are changing. The most intriguing aspect of Vance, other than his age, is his willingness to reject traditional GOP labels.
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