The Honeymoon is Over, and Other Observations
Author: Greg Valliere
August 12, 2024
WE’RE ONLY HALFWAY THROUGH OUR ANNUAL AUGUST BREAK, and already we can’t resist making a few quick comments, headed by a significant change in the U.S. political climate.
JUST A WEEK AGO, MINNESOTA GOVERNOR TIM WALZ was the toast of Washington, poised to provide enough electoral votes for Kamala Harris to win the presidency as she suddenly led in the key battleground states. Now the Democrats are pushing back on charges that Walz falsified his military record, which has raised a crucial issue — did the Harris campaign staff adequately vet Walz’s record?
IT’S FAR FROM CERTAIN THAT the Walz uproar will doom the ticket; there are plenty of rumors swirling around both camps. But this has taken some of the luster off the Harris-Walz ticket and persuades us that by next week the race will be tied again, after Harris pulled into a narrow lead last week.
THE HARRIS CAMPAIGN NOW CONCEDES THAT Walz misrepresented his military record, which is the last thing the Democrats wanted ahead of the August 19 party convention and the September 10 debate between Trump and Harris. Our take is that the election will remain essentially tied into late September.
THE FINANCIAL MARKETS BEGAN TO FEAR a Harris victory and the stock market plunged last week. Now that the race appears to be a near-tie, the markets have rallied.
WE REITERATE OUR COMMENT FROM LAST WEEK: Harris and Walz are far to the left on everything from taxes to governing school behavior. A Harris ticket with Mark Kelly would have been more formidable, in our opinion. Kelly is a war hero, which could appeal to voters as the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine heat up this month.
OBVIOUSLY, Trump has flaws, including an uninspiring running mate and a hazy memory, but it now looks like the Democrats have stumbled. This is quite a shift from just a week ago.
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