The Invasion of Rafah Looms
Author: Greg Valliere
May 6, 2024
THE NEXT PHASE of the gruesome Mideast war is likely to begin within days. Peace talks between Israel and Hamas broke down over the weekend, and both sides now expect an invasion of Rafah, the teeming, tunnel-filled city that’s within a few miles of the Egyptian border.
LIKE THE EARLIER PHASE, the war will be televised, with images of high civilian casualties. This will ratchet up protests in the West, including the U.S. President Joe Biden, who gets poor grades from the U.S. public for his handling of the war. Biden has virtually begged Israel to hold off on an invasion, to no avail.
IF THIS NEW PHASE produces high civilian casualties, the damage to Biden and the Democrats will be immense. Even though college campuses are emptying out for the summer, there will be plenty of protests — the Democrats are dreading the Aug. 19-22 Democratic convention in Chicago where thousands of protesters may threaten the party’s shaky election prospects.
DESPITE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE PLEAS from the U.S., there’s no sign that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will relent — even if it means a slowing of U.S. aid shipments to Israel as rumored over the weekend.
THE ISRAELIS called this weekend for an evacuation of parts of Rafah, home to more that a million Palestinians. Netanyahu, under pressure from hard-liners in his cabinet, has called for an immediate evacuation, raising speculation that Israel’s long-promised ground offensive may come within days.
AFTER EARLIER SIGNS OF PROGRESS, the outlook appeared to dim in recent days as Netanyahu vowed to resist international pressure to halt the war. Military analysts were quoted in the Wall Street Journal this morning as warning that an invasion of Rafah could be very difficult; the city is filled with tunnels and booby-traps.
FOUR HAMAS BATTALIONS remain in Rafah, along with thousands of other fighters who have fled from northern and central Gaza as the Israeli army plowed through the Gaza Strip. The likelihood of high casualties has prompted Netanyahu to lower expectations for a cease fire; he calls the Hamas demands “extreme.”
HAMAS UNDOUBTEDLY IS UNDER PRESSURE FROM hard-liners in the region, headed by Iran, that are eager to scuttle talks because a breakdown would stall any progress on a Mideast peace pact that would include Saudi Arabia and Israel. A deal, incredibly, is still on the table — but a protracted and bloody new phase of this war would scuttle any deal.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.
AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.
Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, AGF has investment operations and client servicing teams on the ground in North America and Europe. AGF serves more than 800,000 investors. AGF trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol AGF.B.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2024 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.