The Main Event — Trump vs. Putin
Author: Greg Valliere
January 23, 2025
THE TWO ARE EXPECTED TO TALK by phone in the next few days, amid expectations that there could be some progress in ending the horrific Ukraine war. But expectations are low.
IN MOSCOW, THE HARD-LINERS PREVAIL. They think the Russian army will steadily advance into central Ukraine, and they believe Russia can wait out the Ukrainians, as prospects dim for major new aid from Washington.
WHAT’S CHANGED? Donald Trump, obviously, a new geopolitical dynamic. Trump once boasted that he could end the war in a day, but that obviously won’t happen. But he’s prepared to push for a settlement via a combination of flattery and threats — which may produce results by summer.
THAT TIMETABLE IS FAR TOO GLACIAL FOR TRUMP, who declared earlier this week that he’s prepared to impose “high levels of taxes, tariffs and sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States.”
RUSSIA’S NEGOTIATING FORMULA, advocated by Putin and his top aides, involves a neutral, demilitarized Ukraine outside of NATO, with Russia keeping the territory it has already annexed. It may also encompass Moscow’s demands for broader talks on Europe’s security architecture and for NATO to roll back its military infrastructure from its eastern borders.
AS ON MANY OTHER ISSUES, Trump has to be taken very seriously (see: Greenland and the Panama Canal). Trump isn’t bluffing and is prepared to impose stiff new sanctions on Russia, which has a teetering economy.
BOTTOM LINE: Both sides need a victory, or at least the perception of a victory. We think talks between Trump and Putin will create a working group that will negotiate for months about a possible-end game. A deal is still a long way off, but it’s closer to reality than when Joe Biden was president.
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