The Real Reasons DeSantis Dropped Out
Author: Greg Valliere
January 22, 2024
WHY DID RON DeSANTIS DROP OUT? There’s the usual reasons: he was running out of money, his polls were dismal, his campaign was in shambles, people couldn’t warm up to him, etc. But we think there are two other reasons why DeSantis decided to drop out now.
First, there was quite an impact in the political world after Trump got Nancy Pelosi and Nikki Haley mixed up late last week. That’s hardly a fatal blow, but sources who have spent time with Trump lately report that he’s not as sharp as he was four years ago. If Trump, 77, shows more confusion, the party might take another look at DeSantis (or others who have dropped out) if there’s a need to consider alternatives who have been loyal to the MAGA cause.
Second, DeSantis is already thinking about 2028. He’s only 45 now, and with Trump unable to serve another term even if he wins this fall, one would imagine that DeSantis would run again. Yes, there are Republicans like J.D. Vance and Elise Stefanik who are already thinking about running in 2028, and DeSantis wants to run as a loyal ally of Trump who backed out of a nasty challenge.
THIS WINTER’S NOMINATION BATTLE is essentially over. Trump should win New Hampshire tomorrow night by a comfortable margin — perhaps not a landslide, but Nikki Haley is likely to finish a distant second. Then the race moves to Haley’s home state of South Carolina for the Feb. 24 primary. She’s the clear underdog; the prospect of losing there is likely to push her to drop out within weeks if not days.
WHILE TRUMP IS THE OVERWHELMING FAVORITE to win the GOP nomination, the Nov. 5 general election is another story. Iowa and New Hampshire are hardly reflective of the country, and suddenly polls are showing a sharp rise of confidence in the economy. Joe Biden has his own flaws, including frailty, but if Trump shows any more confusion he will have a major liability of his own.
THE NEW YORK TIMES and others have reported in recent days that voters are only now waking up to the likelihood of a Biden-Trump race, and they’re incredulous. Dissatisfaction with the two nominees will boost support for third party candidates, led by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — still another wild card in a race where, suddenly, all eyes are on the volatile Trump and how he handles being the presumptive nominee.
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