The Story of the Summer
Author: Greg Valliere
June 13, 2023
REPORTS IN THE WASHINGTON POST and elsewhere describe bitter in-fighting among Russian field generals, military strategists in Moscow, and the Russian elite in neighborhoods that have been targeted by drone attacks. These audacious strikes have not been entirely from Ukrainian troops that are targeting western Russia; some of the attacks have come from anti-Putin forces now operating within Russia itself.
IT’S TOO EARLY TO MAKE A DEFINITIVE CALL on the Ukrainian counter-offensive, which has reclaimed key villages in the east. Several sophisticated Ukrainian tanks, supplied by the West, have been destroyed or damaged. But Ukrainian troops, their morale strong, continue to advance.
THE MAJOR CHANGE is the political climate in Moscow, as the country’s elite openly question Vladimir Putin’s ability to protect the country. The Post reported this weekend that one of the most influential members of the Russian parliament, Konstantin Zatulin, declared openly that all of Putin’s war goals have failed.
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HUGE CASUALTIES this summer could be the last straw for the Russian public; Putin already has lost most of the oligarchs and generals, and the Russian economy continues to deteriorate. It’s becoming clear that Russia cannot win this war, as strategists in Kyiv and western capitals discuss potential terms of a truce that could arrive by the end of the summer.
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DONALD TRUMP’S INDICTMENT TODAY is likely to be a media circus, followed by a fiery speech by the ex-President this evening from his New Jersey golf club. But not much will change — Trump should maintain his comfortable lead among Republicans for the GOP presidential nomination, even as Chris Christie, Nikki Haley and others condemn him.
WE TALKED WITH A SAVVY REPUBLICAN yesterday who is aghast that top secret documents were haphazardly scattered throughout Mar-a-Lago; like former Attorney General Bill Barr, our source believes the government has a very strong case. And two more Trump indictments loom — in Georgia for vote tampering and in Washington DC for his role in the Jan. 6 riot.
BUT THE FURIOUS REPUBLICAN BASE IS CONVINCED that there’s a double standard; they believe Joe and Hunter Biden have committed crimes. The continued likelihood that Trump will win the nomination is a nightmare for many of the party’s moderates, who believe he would lose in the general election.
BUT WHAT IF TRUMP, EVEN IF UNDER INDICTMENT, WINS the general election against the elderly Biden? The buzz in Washington is that if Trump manages to win, his first act as president would be to self-pardon.
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MORE BUDGET TURMOIL: Sadly, the debt ceiling deal earlier this spring has not eliminated the likelihood of more chaos on government spending. A handful of very conservative House members are demanding that House Speaker Kevin McCarthy push for even deeper cuts, and McCarthy seemed to agree yesterday. This is a very complicated story; suffice to say, a government shutdown is possible as the new fiscal year begins on Oct. 1.
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THE BIG MARKET STORY OBVIOUSLY is the Federal Reserve’s consideration of a pause later this week in its rate hikes. This morning’s inflation data will be crucial. Is a rate cut possible later this year? Unlikely but not impossible, as the Fed worries that the commercial real estate Depression could have a major impact on banks.
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