The U.S.-China Thaw
Author: Greg Valliere
July 30, 2025
THE ASTONISHING DONALD TRUMP STEAMROLLER is about to claim another victory: a clear thawing of relations between the U.S. and China.
SUDDENLY, Trump is willing to liberalize trade relations with Beijing. Trump and Xi Jinping have agreed to meet this fall, and U.S. relations with Taiwan have cooled, which mainland China wants.
LEADERS OF BOTH POLITICAL PARTIES in the U.S. have reacted cautiously, worried that business dealings will take precedence over trade and security issues. U.S. manufacturers have claimed for years that China dumps goods in the U.S. while American firms are frozen out.
WE HIGHLY RECOMMEND A FRONT PAGE article in this morning’s Washington Post that details the thawing between the two countries. We will take a deeper dive on this in August; suffice to say that sales of computer chips and AI can be negotiated.
AS TRUMP PILES UP VICTORY AFTER VICTORY, it seems that tariff issues can be resolved. A deal with Canada eventually will emerge, and chilly relations with India will thaw. This may leave only two geopolitical issues to tackle — curbing Benjamin Netanyahu, which is do-able, and bringing Russia to the negotiating table on Ukraine, which has a very high degree of difficulty.
IF TRUMP CAN GET A TRUCE WITH MOSCOW, after his remarkable successes this year, the Nobel Peace Prize could enter the narrative for him. We’re not making this up.
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