This is How Donald Trump Could Lose the Election
Author: Greg Valliere
February 13, 2024
IF JOE BIDEN ever needed a life preserver, it was in recent days — and he got one, courtesy of Donald Trump, who astounded Republicans by mocking Nikki Haley’s husband and inviting Russia to invade U.S. NATO allies who have not paid their full dues.
TRUMP BEGAN THE WEEKEND BY RIDICULING Michael Haley, who is on a one year military deployment in Africa with the South Carolina National Guard. Polls in South Carolina, which has a Feb. 24 primary, may show some tightening; military service is held in esteem in the state.
TRUMP WASN’T FINISHED: He literally invited Russia to invade NATO members who have not paid all of their dues. “I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage your enemies to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay. You gotta pay your bills.” Not only would he not come to their defense if attacked by the Russians, but he would also encourage the Russians “to do whatever the hell they want” against such allies.
REPUBLICANS ON CAPITOL HILL WERE EMBARRASSED by these latest gaffes, which could play a role in this week’s cliffhanger on aid to Ukraine, Israel and others. The Senate, which debated through the Super Bowl, could pass its bill tonight or tomorrow, ignoring Trump’s demand that they kill the measure.
ANGRY SENATORS HAVE ABANDONED THEIR USUAL DECORUM: They are now close to passing the aid bill, with 17 votes from GOP defectors. Everything is complicated in Washington — the House may then block the $95 billion bill because it doesn’t contain provisions securing the Southern border.
WE THINK SOME AID WILL WIN APPROVAL, probably not as much as supporters want, and there’s a chance that the final package will contain loans for Ukraine, not outright aid. This is favored by Trump, who has scrambled the political climate over the weekend.
THE WASHINGTON BUZZ late last week focused on Biden’s age, but Trump may have erased that advantage and hurt his general election prospects. Peter Baker at the New York Times got it right — “It was not the first time, nor likely will it be the last,” Baker wrote, “that Trump has stepped up when an adversary was in trouble to provide an escape route with an ill-considered howler of his own.”
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.
AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.
Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, AGF has investment operations and client servicing teams on the ground in North America and Europe. AGF serves more than 800,000 investors. AGF trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol AGF.B.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2025 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
