Three Month Reprieve for Shell-Shocked Investors
Author: Greg Valliere
April 14, 2025
THE DYSFUNCTIONAL DEBATE over trade tariffs may have peaked out in recent days. No one can figure out what the Trump Administration wants to do — so the U.S. electorate will call the shots, with one clear goal — negotiate and get the markets back on their feet.
THE DUELING NARRATIVES have been incredibly confusing — a 90 day tariff delay, exemptions for certain products and countries, and now a sense that Trump and his top aides have capitulated.
THE ONLY CERTAINTY SEEMS TO BE the deep antipathy in Washington toward China, which is still targeted for huge tariffs. As for other countries, including Canada, the details aren’t clear. Can those details get ironed out in 90 days? Maybe a few.
THE MARKETS WILL HAVE TO ENDURE more than three months of confusion and leaks — leaks virtually daily. Our prediction is that there will be more delays and more delays, well past 90 days.
THAT’S BECAUSE THERE ARE OTHER ISSUES that will eclipse tariffs in the next few weeks — the beginning of negotiations with Iran and the plodding movement on a tax bill; a framework narrowly passed in the House late last week but there are deep divisions between the Senate and House on issues like Medicaid spending cuts.
PERHAPS THE BIGGEST WILD CARD IS the voters, who will give members of Congress an earful during this two week break. Republicans are on thin ice in the House, where their slim majority is faltering.
GOP LEADERS are reeling — they are blamed for the Wall Street debacle, and fresh polls later this week will probably show Trump in free-fall.
TRUMP has thrown in the towel on aggressive trade tariffs — a plus for the markets, which will simply have to live with the noise and focus on the negotiations. Everyone wants a deal, and they will come by summer.
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