Time is Running Out for Ukraine; GOP Still Eyes Youngkin
Author: Greg Valliere
August 21, 2023
STAGGERING LOSSES: The total number of Ukrainian and Russian troops killed or wounded since the war began 18 months ago is nearing 500,000, U.S. officials told the New York Times this weekend. Russia’s military casualties, the officials said, are approaching 300,000. The number includes as many as 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 injured troops.
UKRAINE HAS PROBABLY SUFFERED CLOSE TO 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded, officials said. That’s a tremendous cost considering that Ukraine has around 500,000 troops, including active-duty, reserve and paramilitary troops — and Russia has almost triple that number, with 1,330,000 active-duty, reserve and paramilitary troops; most of the latter are from the Wagner Group.
OFFICIALS IN WASHINGTON are reluctant to criticize Ukraine openly, but there’s a widespread consensus that Kyiv’s counter-offensive got off to a very slow start this summer — bogged down in dense minefields in the first few weeks, with as much as 20% of its weapons damaged or destroyed.
THIS TERRIBLE TOLL IS ABOUT TO BECOME a more contentious political issue in the U.S. Some of the Republican candidates who will be in the GOP debate on Wednesday will advocate spending less on the war; there’s growing opposition in the party’s base to President Biden’s new $40 billion spending request.
IF DONALD TRUMP WINS the GOP nomination, he is expected to become a more vocal opponent of military aid to Ukraine, even though traditional Republicans will support it. If the fall begins with no major battlefield breakthrough or truce, the war could become increasingly unpopular in the U.S.
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ASTONISHING NEW POLLS show Donald Trump with a lead of 40% or more against the GOP field in the presidential primaries; with Ron DeSantis still fading, the issue heading into this Wednesday’s GOP debate is whether anyone can stop Trump. Many Republicans are still looking at Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin.
THE WASHINGTON POST REPORTED this weekend that billionaire media mogul Rupert Murdoch twice met with Youngkin earlier this year, urging him to run. Youngkin has been non-committal, but sources believe he has not ruled out running, especially if no Republican candidate catches fire.
OTHER WEALTHY CONSERVATIVES HAVE URGED YOUNGKIN to run; they fear a GOP bloodbath in House and Senate races if Trump is the nominee. Murdoch would be a major factor, with his megaphone at the New York Post, the Wall Street Journal and Fox News.
MONEY WOULDN’T BE A PROBLEM; Youngkin is worth at least a half billion dollars. We think he will jump in at the last minute late this fall, but he would be the underdog. Of course, he was the underdog in Virginia against Terry McAuliffe, who got blindsided.
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