Trump In Trouble
Author: Greg Valliere
February 23, 2026
Donald Trump often backs himself into a rhetorical corner, and he’s in quite a pickle now — a possible war with Iran, and massive confusion over his tariffs.
Iran is the more imminent crisis. Trump has not been able to present a case for going to war — and his job approval polls are nearly two-thirds negative — but he will attempt to revive talks with Iran this Thursday.
An excellent article in this morning’s New York Times details potential Iranian targets, including the Revolutionary Guards headquarters.
Under this scenario, the U.S. would launch an all-out military assault later this year — but that would require an enormous armada to stay in the Persian Gulf for months.
There simply isn’t an easy solution, and by the end of this week the crisis could intensify; there’s no consensus on curbing nuclear enrichment or ending Iran’s aid to the region’s radicals. And regime change could be a very costly option.
The other crisis exploded last Friday when the Supreme Court ruled against Trump’s tariffs.
This bombshell rocked Washington; a consensus quickly emerged that trade policy won’t be clear for at least 150 days — the amount of time before new Trump tariffs would expire, as stipulated in trade law.
Several Republicans rejoiced; they will vote against any new tariffs. We think there aren’t enough GOP votes to pay back tariffs later this year.
The confusion over Iran and trade comes at an inopportune time for Trump — his polls continue to plummet and it’s increasingly likely that the Republicans will lose control of the House this fall.
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