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Trump Vs. Hamas; Fed Goes Dovish

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Trump Vs. Hamas; Fed Goes Dovish

Author: Greg Valliere

October 15, 2025

TRUMP VS. HAMAS: After the spectacular success in reaching a tentative Mideast peace, the really hard work begins — Hamas has not capitulated or disarmed.

IN FACT, Donald Trump — in a stunningly bellicose speech yesterday — said he would authorize U.S. arms sales to confront Hamas if there’s fresh hostilities.

WE THINK THE PEACE WILL HOLD, but the U.S. has to avoid over-committing — strikes on Venezuelan radicals, more arms to Ukraine, and the likelihood of aid to confront Iran and its allies Hezbollah and the Houthis.

WE’RE BACK TO THE guns vs. butter debate that staggered the U.S. economy in the late 1960s — this time the catalyst may be a potential AI bubble that has little serious opposition, and a Federal Reserve that will keep cutting rates.

FED CHAIRMAN JEROME POWELL in a speech yesterday seemed to be preparing for another rate cut at the Oct. 28-29 FOMC meeting, and it’s possible that more reductions will come later this year. The wild card, of course, is the absence of economic data because of the shutdown.

SO THE FED is prepared to cut rates without firm data to back that up — even though the economy is solid and modest inflation persists. As for the economic data to justify more easing, “we’ll start to miss it, ” Powell said.

WE’RE not on the bubble bandwagon, but we are concerned that both monetary and fiscal stimulus have arrived; there’s no serious effort in Washington to curb the deficit. The guns vs. butter debate may be returning.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.

AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.

Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, AGF has investment operations and client servicing teams on the ground in North America and Europe. AGF serves more than 800,000 investors. AGF trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol AGF.B.

For further information, please visit AGF.com.

©2025 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

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