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Trump Widens His Lead

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Insights and Market Perspectives

Trump Widens His Lead

Author: Greg Valliere

March 8, 2023

WE GOT EMAILS LAST WEEK from readers who were incredulous over our piece on “The Trump Comeback,” but believe it or not — the former president’s poll numbers have risen even more in recent days. Don’t shoot the messenger this morning.

THE MOST EYE-POPPING POLL comes from New Hampshire, where voters supposedly want to move on from Trump, favoring a fresh face like Gov. Ron DeSantis. But a new poll of likely Republican voters by Emerson College shows a huge lead for Trump in the state’s primary (which is less than a year away). Here are the poll results:

DONALD TRUMP LEADS WITH 58%, followed by Ron DeSantis at 17%, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu at 7%, Nikki Haley at 6%, Mike Pence at 4%, and a few others at 1 or 2%. Emerson is not an elite polling organization, but Trump with a 41% lead is astonishing. And the weak showing by media favorite Sununu may alter his thinking about 2024.

ANTHER STATE POLL, from Roanoke College in Virginia, shows Trump at 39%, DeSantis at 28%, and — surprisingly — Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin at only 6%. Other polls — nationwide and in key states — show Trump comfortably ahead for the nomination.

WHAT TO MAKE OF THIS? Needless to say, the Trump base is unshakeable and his challengers have made little progress. DeSantis has plenty of money and and a very ambitious agenda to push in Florida’s state legislature — but a perception is growing that he’s a quart low on charisma.

THESE POLLS DON’T MEAN Trump is the favorite to win the general election. Most surveys show him roughly tied with Joe Biden, but Biden has to worry about one very big negative — a majority of Democrats think he shouldn’t run again.

BIDEN MAY ANNOUNCE HIS CANDIDACY by May, and he’s considered the sure nominee against token opposition (unless Joe Manchin, itching to run, enters the race as a centrist, portraying Biden as too radical). Marianne Williamson will get plenty of attention if she’s the only Biden opponent, but neither she nor Republican Vivek Ramaswamy — both running as outsiders — have a chance to win the presidency.

IS THE 2024 RACE SHAPING UP as another Biden vs. Trump contest? If that looks
increasingly likely, could a third party challenger offer a real alternative? A third party would face huge logistical and financial challenges. Third parties have had very little success in the past century; the last third party candidate to win even one state was George Wallace in 1968.

BUT THE ONCE-UNTHINKABLE — another cringe-inducing race between the elderly Biden and Trump — could so turn off the electorate that a third party cannot be totally ruled out. What a plus that would be for Trump, with his 35%-40% base that will love him for ever.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

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©2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

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