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U.S.-China Relations — Still Poor; Teamsters and UPS Will Return to the Bargaining Table

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U.S.-China Relations — Still Poor; Teamsters and UPS Will Return to the Bargaining Table

Author: Greg Valliere

July 21, 2023

HOPES FOR AN IMPROVEMENT in relations between the U.S. and China have faded this week. The good news is that both sides are talking; the bad news is that there have been no agreements on key issues — and there’s been a bold Chinese hack of U.S. officials, including the U.S. ambassador to China.

EARLIER THIS SUMMER, there was hope that a U.S. charm offensive might yield results — as Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, climate czar John Kerry and even Henry Kissinger all visited Beijing and talked with their counterparts. But there were no agreements; Kerry in particular was rebuffed.

THE FALLBACK ARGUMENT in Washington is that communication has improved, but even that modest accomplishment has been clouded in the past day by the bombshell disclosure in the Wall Street Journal that hackers linked to Beijing accessed the email account of the U.S. ambassador to China, Nicholas Burns, in an attack that is believed to have compromised at least hundreds of thousands of individual U.S. government emails.

WIDESPREAD HACKING: Daniel Kritenbrink, the assistant secretary of state for East Asia, was also hacked in the cyber-espionage attack, sources told the Journal. This means officials in Beijing had access to U.S. thinking ahead of the visits by Blinken and others.

THE RECENT HACK was pulled off by leveraging a flaw in Microsoft’s cloud-computing environment that has since been fixed, according to the company,

WHILE MANY COUNTRIES SPY AGAINST EACH OTHER, this disclosure is certain to sour relations between Washington and Beijing. Perhaps a likely meeting this fall between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping will help, but there’s widespread disagreements on virtually every key issue, from computer chips to harassment of U.S. aircraft and ships.

ANY DEAL BETWEEN THE COUNTRIES would encounter fierce opposition in Washington, where antipathy toward China is pervasive. Biden must know that any deal would increase criticism by Republicans who believe he was involved in a lucrative deal that Hunter Biden brokered with China. A fierce Republican offensive has erupted over the Bidens’ dealings with China and Ukraine.

SO WE THINK THERE’S LITTLE CHANCE of real breakthroughs between Washington and Beijing. Both sides are talking, which is good, but they have produced nothing — even as China’s economy weakens.

* * * *

WITH A UPS STRIKE DEADLINE fast approaching, both sides confirmed yesterday that they will return to the bargaining table next Wednesday, just days before the July 31 deadline set by the Teamsters for a deal with UPS before a strike would begin on Aug. 1.

MANY OF THE KEY DETAILS have been resolved, including a raise for full-time workers, who now make about $40 an hour, but there’s no agreement on part-time workers, who earn $16 to $20 per hour. Retailers who use UPS have notified their customers of a likely disruption of deliveries; even if there’s a deal by late next week, it would take a few days to ratify, so a brief strike — at the least — is increasingly likely.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

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©2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

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