Uncertainty for Months to Come
Author: Greg Valliere
May 30, 2025
THE STUNNING, HEAD-SPINNING, MIND BOGGLING trade fiasco will not be resolved quickly. It probably will land in the Supreme Court — and even that may not settle the issue.
WEDNESDAY’S RULING by the U.S. Court of International Trade against most tariffs was stayed last night by a higher court, amid growing speculation that the case will wind up in the Supreme Court — where conservatives have a 6-3 majority.
FOR ALL OF DONALD TRUMP’S FLAWS, there’s little doubt that he brilliantly thwarts the courts — stalling and appealing for years, all while demonizing judges.
CONFUSION WILL BE THE MAJOR THEME: Confusion with Russia, confusion with the Big Beautiful tax bill, and confusion on trade tariffs. Even if the Supreme Court thwarts the tariffs, the Trump Administration, according to this morning’s Wall Street Journal, is devising new “Plan B” challenges.
THE MARKETS NAIVELY thought Trump got the message in early April, when he relented on imposing huge tariffs and briefly toned down his criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The markets were ecstatic, but Trump’s softening didn’t last long and now he’s preparing for a long fight.
THE IMPLICATIONS ARE WIDESPREAD: How can Powell, who met with Trump yesterday, conduct monetary policy when there’s no certainty on trade? How can businesses plan ahead when trade talks with China have stalled (as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent conceded yesterday).
ANOTHER MAJOR IMPLICATION is political, as Republicans in Congress increasingly move away from Trump and the likelihood that prices will surge this summer.
THE ONLY CERTAINTY IS THAT the confusion will persist, with one very troubling trend: bashing judges for their rulings and even hinting that the White House might not comply.
THE STOCK MARKET RALLIED early yesterday after Wednesday’s ruling that Trump lacked the authority to impose many of the tariffs. But the rally didn’t last long and the ruling is hardly the last word. Even the Supreme Court may not even be the last word, as trade radical Peter Navarro works on new options.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.
AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.
Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, AGF has investment operations and client servicing teams on the ground in North America and Europe. AGF serves more than 800,000 investors. AGF trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol AGF.B.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2025 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
