What the GOP Wants on Impeachment; Flicker of Life on Border Bill
Author: Greg Valliere
December 14, 2023
THERE AREN’T ENOUGH VOTES for Congress to impeach and convict Joe Biden, but the GOP has a chance of success in meeting two key objectives as a long legal fight looms:
1. Energize the base. Republicans got an earful from their constituents during the Thanksgiving break. The party’s voters largely agree with Donald Trump that impeachment of Biden is warranted, and Trump will relentlessly call for it. At the least, a Biden impeachment probe would deflect attention away from Trump’s enormous legal liabilities.
2. It will ultimately give the GOP better legal standing; the probe will strengthen their subpoena power to obtain more documents and testimony for its investigation. Every Republican in the House voted yesterday to begin an investigation, and we’d guess that nearly half of Senate Republicans are willing to let this probe continue.
IS THIS A CASE of “high crimes and misdemeanors,” which is a very high bar to clear? Chances of House impeachment are slim, and there’s absolutely no chance that the Senate would vote to oust Biden. That would require a 2/3rds vote to convict.
BUT THIS WILL BE a significant distraction for Biden, as Republicans demand documents about his (and Hunter Biden’s) foreign business dealings, which have the potential to embarrass the president. Could the GOP over-play its hand? It’s possible, as the public tires of the intense partisanship and a lack of explosive evidence. But this is still another reason to conclude that Biden — as of now — is the underdog in the November election.
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WE CONTINUE TO BELIEVE that a final deal on immigration is unlikely before Congress leaves town for the holidays. But there are signs that both parties are ready to accept a compromise that would curb asylum and even send some illegal immigrants back to their countries of origin. Both parties agree that the staggering amount of illegal immigrants has to end, and both parties generally agree that aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan should be included in any legislation.
BUT PASSING A BILL BEFORE ADJOURNMENT is a tall order. Hard-core conservatives and liberals have huge issues with the deal that’s taking shape, and even if the center holds it would take several days to write final legislative language and get it approved by both houses. Members want to go home, possibly as early as tomorrow.
THE THREAT OF KEEPING MEMBERS IN WASHINGTON just days before Christmas has always been a catalyst to act quickly, leading to huge (and sloppy) bills that slide through Congress, and this could happen in the next week. A more likely scenario is an agreement in principle on immigration and passage of a bill in January that would contain aid for Ukraine and other countries.
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