What We’re Hearing on Capitol Hill
Author: Greg Valliere
October 9, 2025
October is usually one of the most volatile months of the year on Capitol Hill, and this year is no exception.
We’ve talked with Congressional staffers, most of whom are resigned to dysfunction on domestic disputes, but suddenly geopolitics is the hot issue.
To be blunt, Donald Trump stands a chance of winning the Nobel Peace prize this year or next — fulfilling his great goal.
Here’s what we’re hearing on Capitol Hill:
Trump is failing on domestic issues, unable to find an exit strategy in Chicago and other cities, making enemies among Republicans who worry about the 2026 election.
But the public perception of a falling crime rate has electrified his political base and kept his poll numbers fairly solid.
This is a high-wire gamble. If there’s violence in major cities, it could be a huge political risk; rank-and file Republicans have cautioned him to tone down the rhetoric.
Crime may be lower, but illegal immigration has plummeted, and Trump’s base remains solid.
The goal of dramatically lowering the budget deficit seems — as usual — unattainable. A budget deal later this year won’t make a major dent in the red ink.
Republicans are prepared to push hard for tax cuts in 2026, an election year, and they have a good chance of succeeding.
Trump’s push for major new tariffs is very unpopular on Capitol Hill. Some foreign countries have capitulated, but this issue — like so many others — hinges on the courts, which may continue to thwart Trump.
The Democrats are showing some signs of life, but an Israeli-Hamas deal would dwarf all other issues. A deal still looks tricky but we put odds at 60-40 that this will occur.
The next goal on Capitol Hill is to vote for more aid to Ukraine; this also isn’t a slam dunk, but Moscow seems exhausted and demoralized.
Make no mistake, it’s still the Donald Trump show on Capitol Hill. Members of Congress are afraid that he may over-play his hand, but he still has the votes — barely — to call the shots.
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