What Will Nikki Haley Do Tomorrow?
Author: Greg Valliere
March 5, 2024
THERE ARE PRIMARIES (especially in California) that will keep us up until midnight, but the big show is the Republican presidential race, which will essentially end by tomorrow. Donald Trump may win all 16 of the primaries, many by 40 points or more.
THE PRESSURE WILL BE ON NIKKI HALEY, who could hang on for more defeats or drop out later this week. We think the latter is likely; it’s unlikely she will still be in the race by the weekend.
A HALEY ENDORSEMENT of Trump would make a difference in the general election. Haley has solid support among moderates and suburbanites and could provide just enough votes for Trump to win a state like Pennsylvania.
SINCE TRUMP’S ATTACKS ON HALEY have had little impact, we think Republicans will soften their tone, congratulating Haley for her strong campaign, and offering her an implicit deal: support Trump and you will be first in line in the 2028 primaries.
A SIMILAR DEAL, persuading Ronald Reagan to stay out of the 1976 race, cleared the field for him in 1980, when he won the presidency.
HALEY HAS BEEN APPROACHED by the No Labels party, comprised mostly of moderates. They cannot find a big time challenger, since Larry Hogan and Joe Manchin declined their offer.
HALEY HAS LITTLE CHANCE of becoming president on the No Labels ticket, but she surely has a chance to win the Republican nomination in 2028; she will be 55 as that campaign heats up.
SO WE THINK HALEY WILL DROP OUT within days, offering a lukewarm endorsement of Trump — she will say that he is a preferable candidate to Biden. That will leave Cornell West and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the only other candidates left; the latter could win 4 or 5 percent in the general election.
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WITH THE FOCUS ON SUPER TUESDAY and the State of the Union address on Thursday, the budget battle has faded from view. But — surprise — Congress is making progress, with half of the 12 spending measures now close to enactment by the March 8 deadline. The other half will be more difficult.
HOUSE SPEAKER MIKE JOHNSON is getting close to a deal on both bills, although another extension is possible as the March 22 deadline proves to be challenging on issues like aid to Ukraine (which is still alive). Republican hard-liners are grumbling that spending cuts, abortion restrictions and other conservative causes have been eliminated from their bill.
WHAT’S SHAPING UP, in our opinion, is a fiscally conservative spending bill that has very few policy changes on issues like abortion. After the appalling $1.7 trillion deficit in fiscal 2023, red ink may fall slightly this fiscal year to a mere $1.5 trillion.
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