What’s At Stake As the House Hits Bottom?
Author: Greg Valliere
October 13, 2023
THE “BURN IT DOWN” FACTION, perhaps 10% of the House Republicans, wants to dramatically cut federal spending, impeach President Biden, and enact very conservative social policies. All Democrats and a handful of GOP members disagree with that agenda — enough to block the Republican hard-liners, who have responded with shutdown threats.
THE HOUSE IS IN A DE FACTO SHUTDOWN NOW because there has to be a Speaker to move legislation. This paralysis in the House is becoming a serious issue, as major legislation has stalled — and still another potential Speaker, Rep. Steve Scalise, dropped out last night in the race to succeed Rep. Kevin McCarthy.
BRINGING CONGRESS TO A HALT has enormous consequences. A government shutdown can’t be ruled out as the next deadline approaches on Nov. 17. More aid to Israel and Ukraine is widely supported in both parties and in both houses, but can this funding overcome procedural hurdles in the House?
THE ANSWER TO THIS DYSFUNCTION still appears to be the one solution, by default, that the House may have to accept: a deal with Democrats, who would provide the votes to elect a Speaker and pass legislation. This would be a total humiliation for the GOP leadership, but a consensus is emerging that the Mideast war warrants drastic action in Washington.
AS FOR THE BUDGET BILLS, there’s been no progress whatsoever since McCarthy got the boot, and it looks increasingy unlikely that all 12 appropriations bills can pass by Nov. 17. Many Republicans are talking about a six month extension, but they want a 1% spending cut, which the Democrats reject. In any event, an extension beyond Nov. 17 looks increasingly likely.
ALL OF THIS SOUNDS UNSERIOUS in an increasingly grim world. We’re hearing that House members are getting an earful from voters back home, who are disgusted by shutdown threats and uncertainty on federal benefit programs. And there’s one other message that may soon enter this narrative: the credit rating agencies, prepared to downgrade U.S. debt once again.
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