Who Gets the Blame?
Author: Greg Valliere
March 12, 2025
REPUBLICAN MEMBERS OF CONGRESS have been inundated with angry emails and phone calls, as constituents seek to blame someone — anyone — for the tariff fiasco.
THE SENSE OF PANIC could ease if this morning’s inflation data is tame, or if there’s a lasting peace in Ukraine, or if the Federal Reserve suddenly sounds more dovish. All plausible scenarios.
BUT REVIEWS AMONG REPUBLICANS throughout the country have been scathing, as voters look at their retirement accounts.
DONALD TRUMP IS A MASTER at spinning narratives that portray him favorably — so he always looks for scapegoats. And he has one — the bombastic billionaire who heads the Commerce Department, Howard Lutnick, the Wall Street veteran who may not appreciate the art of Washington infighting.
THE BETTING IN THIS TOWN is that Lutnick will be the first Cabinet secretary to go (in second place — Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has embraced weird cures for measles).
TRUMP IS USUALLY LOYAL to his team, so we don’t think Lutnick will go soon, but there’s exasperation within the inner circle over his front-running of issues, as he dashes from one TV studio to another, changing his story along the way.
THIS COULD JUST BE AN EXAMPLE of Beltway speculation, but our sense is that Trump could lose a good chunk of his base if recession fears escalate into a self-fulfilling prophecy,
BOTTOM LINE: For the financial markets, there’s a possibility of better news as the pendulum shifts in Ukraine, inflation, and other issues. And a recession is far from certain.
BUT TRUMP voraciously reads the polls, which show him slumping as voters ask how an administration could get off to such a good start, only to descend into chaos.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.
AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.
Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, AGF has investment operations and client servicing teams on the ground in North America and Europe. AGF serves more than 800,000 investors. AGF trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol AGF.B.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2025 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
