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Why is Joe Biden Traveling to the Mideast?

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Why is Joe Biden Traveling to the Mideast?

Author: Greg Valliere

October 17, 2023

THE HIGH-RISK TRIP BY PRESIDENT BIDEN to the Middle East was the talk of Washington yesterday. The consensus is that there are five major reasons for his trip, which is risky politically — and physically:

1. SHOW SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL: It’s no secret that Biden and many of his top advisers aren’t big fans of Benjamin Netanyahu, but they want to show there’s no friction between the two. And Biden wants to send a signal to American opponents of the war, mostly on the left, that resistance is futile.

2. URGE RESTRAINT: Biden’s advisers have been warned that the “Arab street” will explode later this week if Israel inficts massive damage and high casualties in Gaza. Biden will emphasize restraint and humanitarian aid; whether that will sway Arab opinion is doubtful.

3. A MESSAGE TO IRAN: Two U.S. battleships and at least 2,000 American soldiers will send a message to Tehran. This is the single biggest wild card in the war — a conflict between the U.S. and Iran is the one scenario that could scramble the U.S. financial markets, which have been surprisingly sanguine on the war.

4. THE POST-WAR CLIMATE: Once Gaza is subdued, the focus will shift on the post-war climate. Biden has urged Israel to refrain from a long occupation, and the Israelis apparently don’t want one either. Biden began the post-war debate this week by proclaiming that it would be “a mistake” for Israel to begin a long occupation.

5. A CONTRAST WITH TRUMP: Biden’s advisers think Donald Trump handed them a gift when he called Hezbollah “very smart,” a comment the former president had to walk back (a rarity for him). The White House theme will be who’s the more stable war-time president — perhaps not the impulsive Trump, who bears grudges and has lashed out at Netanayhu in recent days.

THE END GAME: If Biden returns from the Mideast without any tangible progress, with a war raging in Gaza, his critics will pounce. If Hamas is quickly crushed and other regional powers reach an agreement to care for one million refugees, the U.S. president may win points for the effort. The stakes could not be higher for Joe Biden.

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The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

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About AGF Management Limited

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©2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

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