Why Joe Manchin Won’t Run; Teamsters Tell White House to Stay Out
Author: Greg Valliere
July 18, 2023
Second, if he runs on a third party ticket, there’s a chance Manchin could win just enough votes to swing the election to Donald Trump. Manchin is a lifelong Democrat, and despite his policy differences with the party, he doesn’t want his legacy to be throwing the 2024 election to Trump.
Third, some personal issues — Manchin and his family have made millions on energy deals; he’s extremely unpopular among environmentlists. And he turns 76 next month, hardly a plus as voters seek younger candidates.
SO WE THINK MANCHIN WILL ACKNOWLEDGE THE OBVIOUS: He can’t win re-election in the very conservative West Virginia next year, and he can’t possibly win the presidency. So he will tease for a while longer and push the Democrats a bit toward the center, but there’s no path for him next year.
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THE TEAMSTERS UNION’S strident rhetoric continues — President Sean O’Brien has told the White House to stay out of negotiations with UPS and simply focus on corporate greed. “We don’t need anybody getting involved in this fight,” O’Brien said earlier this week.
JOE BIDEN IS THE MOST PRO-LABOR PRESIDENT IN GENERATIONS, but he would get a harsh push-back from the militant Teamsters if he invokes the Taft-Hartley law, which would mandate a 90-day cooling off period. “The White House shouldn’t be concerned with the Teamsters, they should be concerned with corporate America, which keeps making billions upon billions of dollars off the sweat of our members,” O’Brien said. He added: “UPS is scared, we’re backing them into a corner.”
BOTTOM LINE: Handicapping strikes is notoriously difficult, but here goes: With a deadline of Aug. 1, chances of no strike are at 30%; chances of a short strike are at least 40%; chances of a long strike, lasting well into the fall, are 30%. The growing threat of at least a short strike has prompted businesses to scramble, placing orders with FedEx and the U.S. Postal Service. Higher costs and supply chain headaches would be inevitable if the strike is prolonged.
AND THIS WILL NOT BE THE ONLY HEADACHE — the United Auto Workers may strike in early fall, and southern California has serious labor issues, as hotels face sporadic walkouts and Hollywood is virtually shut down.
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