Yes, Joe Biden is Running
Author: Greg Valliere
January 11, 2024
AS WE TALKED with clients this week, one question seemed dominant: will Joe Biden drop out of the presidential race? Insiders within his campaign scoff at that; despite Biden’s terrible polls, they insist he’s running.
BIDEN’S AIDES POINT TO FREQUENT MEETINGS at the White House between Biden and the party’s top fundraisers, which end with attendees impressed with the president’s energy and mental acuity. You would expect them to say that, but people who meet with Biden report that he’s eagerly running.
IN FACT, MANY PEOPLE WHO HAVE MET WITH BIDEN recently report that he’s furious at claims that he hasn’t done a good job on the economy, which continues to surprise to the upside, with a 3.7% unemployment rate.
YET ANXIETY PERSISTS AMONG party leaders around the country, many of whom — led by Barack and Michelle Obama — have urged the White House to campaign more aggressively.
BARACK OBAMA, of course, cannot run again, and Michelle has a distaste for politics and is a very unlikely late entrant, despite her enormous popularity within the party.
WHAT MOST WORRIES THE ACTIVISTS is the possibility of a GOP “sweep,” with Republicans taking the White House, narrowly keeping the House and winning the Senate. A Senate takeover is very likely.
MUCH OF THE CRITICISM OF BIDEN STEMS from his key strategy — make the election about Donald Trump, who sent chills through Washington earlier this week by predicting “bedlam” throughout the country if he loses the election in November.
HANGING OVER THIS NARRATIVE is California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who insists he has no plans to run this year, yet looks like he’s itching to run. Party activists would be thrilled if he jumped in, but we think California’s crime and budget deficit would make Newsom a juicy target.
WE THINK BIDEN WILL CONTINUE TO MEET with big donors, soliciting their advice and assuring them that he will run aggressively. Trump, meanwhile, should wrap up the GOP nomination by Super Tuesday on March 5.
ONLY A HEALTH ISSUE could change the likelihood of a Biden-Trump race, and we’re not aware of any health issue. Biden may be frail, but he’s running.
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