The Election Momentum Has Shifted
Author: Greg Valliere
September 23, 2024
BARRING A MAJOR GAFFE OR SCANDAL, Kamala Harris is poised to win the presidency on Nov. 5. Virtually every poll shows her gaining ground, but perhaps the bigger story is Donald Trump’s loss of momentum.
IT’S A TRICKY CALL, because Harris could win by 7 million votes and still lose narrowly in the Electoral College (see: Hillary Clinton, 2016).
TRUMP STILL HAS A PATH TO 270 ELECTORAL VOTES, but he seems to lack the energy he showed in previous campaigns; Axios reports this morning that he has held far fewer rallies than in 2016.
THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN HAS BEEN ROCKED by a nasty scandal in North Carolina, and Trump was repudiated this past weekend by the House, which will vote soon to keep the government open when the fiscal year starts on Oct. 1. Trump had favored a shutdown, which won very little support in either party.
OUR SENSE, AFTER TALKING WITH STRATEGISTS in both parties, is that abortion and reproductive rights are an enormous albatross for the GOP. To say the least, Trump has been inconsistent on the issue; just watch the campaign ads around the country — abortion dwarfs all other issues.
THE ECONOMY IS STILL A NEGATIVE FOR HARRIS, but recent polls show her closing the gap as she prepares to make price gouging a major issue. Lower interest rates will help her, although many Republicans won’t forgive the Federal Reserve for its 50-basis point rate cut.
TO INVESTORS WHO WORRY THAT A HARRIS VICTORY will shake the markets, we reiterate that the Republicans are poised to take the Senate. A radical Harris agenda, (or a radical Trump agenda, for that matter) wouldn’t have much of a chance in the new Congress.
SIX WEEKS IS A LIFETIME IN POLITICS, and it’s possible that Harris could fade, as Hillary Clinton did in 2016. But Clinton stopped campaigning aggressively, seemingly sure of winning, while Harris has generated tremendous enthusiasm among young people, African Americans, moderates and especially women.
IT’S A VERY CLOSE CALL, but we think Harris will maintain a 4 or 5 percent lead, just enough to capture Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. “Trump’s act has gotten stale,” a one-time supporter told us this past weekend. The former president, 78, is now the underdog.
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