Market Quote: Q4 Equity Market Prospects, Semiconductor Cycle Fears
Author: The editor's desk
October 2, 2024
A mid-week analysis of what’s happening in global financial markets from the perspective of AGF’s investment management team.
Buckle Up
The fourth quarter is a historically volatile period for global equity markets and this year may be no different given several events around the world, including, most notably, the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the U.S. Presidential election in November.
And while many global stocks may seem poised for gains over the next three months, investors should also be cautious about the potential economic fallout associated with the ongoing U.S. port strikes and other possible market-moving outcomes. A government non-confidence vote that would trigger an election here in Canada comes to mind, for instance, as does the continued “melt up” of the Chinese stock market or an early start to tax-loss selling season.
Chip Away
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) vastly outperformed broader equity indexes like the S&P 500 during the first half of the year but has struggled in more recent months on fears that the cycle for “semi” chips has peaked.
But while semiconductor growth rates related to artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure in fact may be running out of steam, the same can’t be said of non-AI-related growth rates, which may experience a meaningful bump now that both the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of China seem committed to easing monetary policy going forward.
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Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.
AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.
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