Confusion, Everywhere
Author: Greg Valliere
February 25, 2025
TALK IS CHEAP: There were major announcements and trial balloons yesterday, but Washington insiders were skeptical.
THE BIGGEST DEVELOPMENT was an assertion by President Trump that a Ukraine deal is imminent. We hope so, but there’s no guarantee that European allies will go along. A final deal is weeks away — or longer. Same with a final Israel-Hamas deal, which is teetering.
KEY TO A UKRAINE DEAL: Kyiv holds huge reserves of minerals, from lithium to titanium, which are vital to manufacturing modern technologies and highly coveted in the global race for resources.
UKRAINE IS INCHING TOWARD a deal that gives up some of these minerals, but there are many unresolved issues — what to do with Crimea, whether European peace-keeping troops will be necessary, etc. A final deal is weeks away.
AS THE SPOTLIGHT SHIFTS TO CAPITOL HILL, there’s growing optimism that a budget deal could pass in the House within days (by a vote or two). But there’s a catch — the deal doesn’t have the votes in the Senate, so once again a fight among Republicans could derail a final package.
A BUDGET DEAL NEEDS APPROVAL by March 14, and it could take well over a month to write a bill. Could there be a continuing resolution, the favorite option when there’s no agreement? A CR is possible, but we don’t think it has the votes.
THERE’S A MARCH 4 DEADLINE for new tariffs, targeting Mexico and Canada. Trump could relent, but he has consistently said in recent weeks that a 25 tariff hike on Canada and Mexico is likely. He keeps saying that he has “big problems” with Canada.
THEN THERE’S THE FARCICAL EFFORT by Elon Musk to force worker retirements. Trump caved in on mandatory essays last night, perhaps after reading the polls and hearing from Republican members of Congress, who are getting an earful from constituents.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.
AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.
Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, AGF has investment operations and client servicing teams on the ground in North America and Europe. AGF serves more than 800,000 investors. AGF trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol AGF.B.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2025 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
