Donald Trump — Crazy Like a Fox
Author: Greg Valliere
March 20, 2023
First, an arrest would give him the publicity he craves, perhaps even pushing bank anxiety and the Xi-Putin summit off the front pages.
Second, it would give Trump still another opportunity to play martyr, which he does very, very well.
Third, he has smoked out Republican presidential candidates like Ron DeSantis — do you support me or not?
THE IRONY is that this isn’t the strongest case as the spring indictment season begins. Most legal experts believe the New York District Attorney will have to rely on a shaky legal premise involving use of campaign funds — and he will have to rely on the disgraced fixer, Michael Cohen, who’s not a very credible witness.
BUT THE GEORGIA CASE is considered very credible; tape recordings and witnesses reportedly have given prosecutors a solid argument that Trump tried to overturn his election defeat there in 2020. An indictment in Atlanta is expected within weeks. Other indictments, including the Big One — Trump’s encouragement of the Jan. 6 riots — are possible.
FACING A SCENARIO of more indictments this spring, Trump pre-emptively raised the issue this weekend, claiming that he would be indicted on Tuesday. With another two witnesses scheduled to testify early this week, we have no idea whether an indictment may come by Tuesday.
TRUMP MAY NOT KNOW EITHER: But by proclaiming that his arrest is coming, he has forced leading Republicans to respond. Predictably, Kevin McCarthy and other House leaders condemned what they called a political indictment, but the silence was deafening from Ron DeSantis.
DeSANTIS IS IN A SLUMP: His polls have slipped, and he has generated widespread criticism for calling the Ukraine war a “border dispute.” Now his refusal to condemn a possible Trump indictment could become another political crisis for DeSantis, who may have no alternative than to publicly defend Trump in the next few days.
TRUMP IS CRAZY LIKE A FOX: He has solidified his base (look for his poll numbers to rise this week) and he has the country on edge, with his base suddenly rejuvenated, willing to consider protests which Trump has urged.
BOTTOM LINE: We have said for the past month that Trump once again is the frontrunner for the GOP nomination — and that assessment would be reinforced if he and most Republicans charge a “witch hunt” in New York. But that assessment may change later this year if Trump gets bogged down in controversies that are far more serious than the Stormy Daniels case.
GIVE TRUMP CREDIT: He has jump-started his campaign by mocking leftist New York prosecutors. But there’s nearly a year to go before the primaries, plenty of time for indictments that eventually may force Republican voters to conclude that he simply has too much baggage — and is at risk of losing, once again, to the flawed Joe Biden.
ANOTHER SERIOUS REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE may emerge to challenge Trump and DeSantis. It could be Nikki Haley, or it could be Tim Scott. But we think a lane is wide open for Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who’s smart and aggressive and has shown a willingness to spend some of his $500 million on winning an election.
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