Here’s the October Surprise
Author: Greg Valliere
October 17, 2024
STRATEGISTS IN BOTH POLITICAL PARTIES have been obsessed in recent weeks over what explosive new revelations could disrupt the election. The surprise is that nothing surprising has happened — except in the Mideast, where fresh assaults are likely.
STARTING THIS FALL, we regularly canvassed Washington insiders for their pick of the October surprise and got fairly predictable answers:
* DONALD TRUMP would resume his incendiary rhetoric on immigration and move into a slight lead.
* KAMALA HARRIS, OFF TO A GREAT START in late August, lost momentum and made an unforgiveable gaffe that tied her to Joe Biden, exactly what Democrats didn’t want to see.
* THE VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES were nothing special — both Trump and Harris overlooked better options.
* THE CONSENSUS ON ISSUES BARELY BUDGED: There’s still deep public anxiety over inflation and the economy; emotional arguments on immigration; the Republicans’ inability to present a coherent message on abortion, etc. A big surprise, in second place, is that Harris can’t get traction with Black voters.
THE BIGGEST OCTOBER SURPRISE is the intensity and implications of the Gaza war, which is likely to become even more disruptive in the coming days.
THE ONGOING WAR has been a huge distraction for Democrats, who — in private — are scathing in their views of Benjamin Netanyahu, who reportedly is close to launching a massive new strike on Iranian-backed forces in the region.
THE WASHINGTON POST REPORTS THIS MORNING that President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris hoped the ongoing violence in the Middle East might simmer below the surface in the final weeks of the presidential race, but fresh Israeli military offensives are making that virtually impossible, U.S. officials and campaign aides say.
NETANYAHU IS EXPECTED to order an imminent attack on Iran’s military facilities in response to its missile strike on Israel this month. For now, Iranian energy and nuclear targets are off-limits.
THE RAPID ESCALATION of the war has tied the Biden administration in knots, resulting in the United States first calling for an immediate cease-fire in Lebanon only to reverse that policy nine days later and openly endorse Israel’s ground offensive.
THE WAR’S SPREAD has alarmed the Harris campaign, which sees the images of dead civilians as complicating her path to victory in key swing states with sizable Arab American and Muslim populations. Michigan is an ongoing concern for the Harris camp.
“IT’S A HUGE CONCERN, it comes down to people saying, ‘I can’t support anyone’ who supports this war,” says a person who advises the campaign said.
A MASSIVE ISRAELI STRIKE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHICH IS LIKELY, will burden the Harris campaign with still another issue that could damage her candidacy. “Abortion alone is not enough to win Harris the presidency,” an adviser says.
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