Pelosi Attack Won’t Affect Election Outlook; The Fed Has a Problem
Author: Greg Valliere
October 31, 2022
FIERY ATTACKS ON NANCY PELOSI persisted in TV ads during the weekend, despite the assault on her husband, raising an intriguing question: could this incident so disgust the public that it could alter the election outcome?
POLITICAL STRATEGISTS WE TALKED WITH over the past weekend think the attack on the House Speaker’s husband may affect a few votes at the margin, but the simple fact is that most people have made up their minds — or have already voted.
WILL THIS INCIDENT AFFECT THE NATIONAL DISCOURSE? It might. But there’s a major new player — Elon Musk, who re-tweeted allegations that there was a third person in the Pelosi house, a rumor passed on by a notoriously unreliable site. Musk quickly took down his re-tweet, but it was a signal that he will continue to be a provocative (or reckless) presence on the internet.
AS FOR DONALD TRUMP, he sent out condolences on Saturday to the family of rocker Jerry Lee Lewis, but he did not comment on the Pelosi attack.
OUR GREAT FRIENDS IN CANADA frequently express dismay over the violence and heated rhetoric in the U.S. Our hope is that this volatility will subside, but our fear is that the Nov. 8 elections will revive charges of voting irregularities. It may take days — or weeks — to be sure who actually won, as the political temperature rises again in the U.S.
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WALL STREET JOURNAL REPORTER Nick Timiraos frequently reflects thinking at the Federal Reserve, and he has another significant piece in this morning’s paper. The economy, he writes, is flush with cash — individuals, state governments and businesses all have far better balance sheets now than they had before the pandemic, thanks to government spending and ultra-low interest rates.
THIS COULD PREVENT THE FED from quickly finishing its tightening. A 75 basis point hike is virtually certain this Wednesday, accompanied by a Jerome Powell press conference which may cite this pandemic stimulus as an impediment to cooling off the economy; last Fridays economic data looked solid.
THE STOCK MARKET RALLIED during much of October because of a belief that the Fed could finish its tightening this winter. The piece from Timiraos may reflect Fed thinking that cooling off the economy may be more difficult than officials anticipated — and, therefore, the central bankers may have to tighten more than the markets thought just a few weeks ago.
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