Spotlight on Kamala Harris
Author: Greg Valliere
July 3, 2024
THE EXTRAORDINARY FIGHT among Democrats over their presidential nominee could drag on for days, as Joe Biden schedules press conferences and tries to spin himself out of a huge crisis. The polls will make all the difference, his aides say, but initial surveys after the debate show Trump opening up a modest lead.
THERE’S NO QUESTION that Trump is now the narrow favorite, with a good chance of a strong GOP showing in races for the Senate, the House, and governorships. Democrats in this town are stunned and — in private — not committed to supporting Biden. This morning’s New York Times article doesn’t help Biden; it portrays him as frequently addled.
PERHAPS MOST INTRIGUINGLY, polls show a modest surge for Kamala Harris, who got higher scores than Biden in a one-on-one matchup with Trump in a CNN poll yesterday. Her bump is modest, but it clearly challenges the White House argument that only he can beat Trump.
THERE’S BEEN A SUBTLE rivalry between the two Democrats. Biden’s aides have been dismissive of Harris for the entire Biden term, while other Democrats — mostly on the left — believe she has a better chance of winning. Her supporters insist, correctly, that it would be suicidal for the party to dismiss a woman of color, which would alienate two of the dominant groups in the party.
HARRIS HAS BEEN CAREFUL to say all the right things about Biden, but insiders believe she would jump at the chance of winning the nomination. If nothing more, she could be well-positioned for the 2028 race.
SEEMINGLY EVERYONE IN THIS TOWN HAS THEIR OWN LIST OF POSSIBLE Biden successors; Gretchen Whitmer is viewed as a rising star, as is Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear. Some analysts like Gavin Newsom, who has enormous crime and budget problems in California.
THERE’S ANOTHER HALF DOZEN SERIOUS CANDIDATES READY TO JUMP, but Harris is the heavy favorite. The party can’t afford to dump her, which may have been Biden’s calculation all along.
* * * *
Happy Fourth!! Assuming there’s no Washington bombshells, we’ll be off tomorrow and Friday, back on Monday.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.
AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.
Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, AGF has investment operations and client servicing teams on the ground in North America and Europe. AGF serves more than 800,000 investors. AGF trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol AGF.B.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2025 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
