The Trump Indictment: Seven Take-aways
Author: Greg Valliere
March 31, 2023
2. Without knowing the details, we suspect this is a pretty weak case, taking an alleged misdemeanor and tying it to a larger allegation of campaign finance fraud. And the star witness will be the convicted felon, Michael Cohen. Even if it’s a weak case, the phrase “hush payments to a porn star” will be the mantra, hardly a plus for Trump.
3. As we have asserted for months, the greatest threat to Trump — by far — are the other three cases that are nearing indictments: Trump’s role in the Jan. 6 riot; his refusal to give up top secret documents that he took to Mar-a-Lago; and his effort to overturn the Georgia presidential vote in 2020. The latter case is moving quickly toward indictments.
4. Republicans, especially GOP presidential candidates, rushed to Trump’s defense last night. The former president will eviscerate any Republican who doesn’t support him uncritically — as in last fall’s congressional elections. Imagine how Mitch McConnell and other party leaders must feel this morning — they were planning to campaign on the shaky economy, crime and illegal immigration, and instead they have to defend Trump.
5. Trump thrives on publicity and brilliantly plays the role of martyr, so this indictment could help him win the GOP nomination. But the general election is another story; he’s the clear underdog.
6. Partisanship will continue to cripple American politics, making it difficult to get much done. Could Trump indictments lead to violence, as he threatened a few weeks ago? Many of the Jan. 6 ringleaders are in jail, and there will be a massive police presence in cities like New York — so future protests may be subdued.
7. This will have virtually no impact — for now — on the financial markets, where the big story this morning isn’t Trump — it’s the release of the personal consumption expenditure report, which includes inflation data that the Fed watches carefully. For now the Trump indictment is a story the markets can live with; the risk, of course, is that a crippled Congress could take Trump’s advice and fail to act on the debt ceiling.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.
AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.
Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, AGF has investment operations and client servicing teams on the ground in North America and Europe. AGF serves more than 800,000 investors. AGF trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol AGF.B.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2025 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
