What We’re Hearing on Capitol Hill
Author: Greg Valliere
September 10, 2024
ALL OF CONGRESS is finally back in Washington, and there’s excitement in the air — a very close and bitter election is less than two months away.
EVERYONE HAS AN OPINION: So here goes with our take on the mood in Washington:
DONALD TRUMP WAS NEARLY GIVEN UP FOR DEAD in this town, as Kamala Harris raced to a clear lead in late August. Now the race is tied again, and Trump still has a plausible chance of winning.
HARRIS NEEDS A GREAT PERFORMANCE tonight; simply good may not be enough. She needs to get her late August mojo back.
REPUBLICANS ARE CONVINCED that they will re-capture the Senate and they probably will. Democrats have a chance to take the House.
A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN, scrambling the pre-election narrative, has support from conservatives in the House, but the government won’t shut down on Oct. 1.
MEMBERS got an earful back home — their constituents have little enthusiasm for big tax or spending changes, which will become a dominant issue by next spring.
SUPPORT IS TEPID for high tariffs and protectionism, but Trump and Harris will accept tariffs. They want to turn the screws on China.
NO ONE TAKES TRUMP SERIOUSLY when he says the president should become a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee.
BUT PLENTY OF PEOPLE TAKE TRUMP SERIOUSLY when he says his opponents could face jail time. Everyone in Washington — and we mean everyone — is bracing for an avalanche of litigation after the election. Trump will not accept defeat, and he controls the courts.
THE REGULATORS ARE GEARING UP: If Harris wins, she will preside over an exceptionally aggressive antitrust policy.
AND THERE’S ANXIETY IN THIS TOWN over geopolitics. Can Harris handle the challenge? Can Trump? The fighting will drag on this winter, in Ukraine and Gaza.
BOTTOM LINE: Will everyone in Washington wake up on Nov. 6 without knowing who won the presidency the night before? Washington is preparing for this scenario.
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