A Mix of Relief and Caution: What a Halt to the Iran War Could Mean for Markets
Author: The editor's desk
April 8, 2026
A two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran is being met with positive vibes from investors, but caution may be warranted about a “return-to-normal” until a permanent halt to the war can be negotiated once and for all, say members of AGF’s investment management team.
After weeks of increasingly defensive investor positioning and Strait of Hormuz shipping coming to a standstill, markets were poised to rally on any signs of a de-escalation in Iran conflict hostilities. However, the next phase of a move toward normalization should focus on production volumes returning to pre-conflict levels, not just shipping. By numerous estimates it may take many weeks, if not a few months, for Gulf production levels to return to normal, as once shut-ins occur, production cannot be turned back on instantaneously. The extent of damage to Middle East energy infrastructure could also weigh on this timeline.
- David Stonehouse, Interim CIO, AGF Investments
The next few days are going to be a very volatile period for crude oil (and global energy equities linked to it). The ceasefire is particularly fraught and could play out several ways depending on what each side chooses to be a red line. For Iran, that seems to be control over the Strait of Hormuz, but the U.S. administration has an uphill task trying to sell that outcome to the Gulf Cooperation Council despite not having more leverage versus these countries.
I expect a return to normal in tanker traffic only after both sides declare a permanent or equivalent cessation of hostilities, but bear in mind that these ships take three to four weeks to arrive at their destination and the last of the Asian market cargoes have already arrived. This means there’s still a notable air pocket that may likely keep a floor on physical oil prices for now. Once this is cleared, I estimate a full return in volumes being two months from the tanker traffic normalization date.
- Pulkit Sabharwal, Analyst, AGF Investments
The willingness of the U.S. administration to consider Iran’s 10-point plan confirms that they are eager to declare victory and withdraw. A cessation of fighting could help ease worries about a global economic crisis, but it’s still highly uncertain whether this truce can hold given the varying objectives of all parties involved in this war.
- Steve Way, Portfolio Manager, AGF Investments
Let’s see if retail traders become re-engaged after taking a timeout over the past several weeks. Their optimism has been one of the keys to the bull market of the past few years and my expectation is for them to once again lead markets higher on better volumes. Granted, what they buy remains an open question. One of the biggest debates on trading desks today is whether large cap tech stocks (i.e. the Magnificent 7) can reassert their trade-of- choice status or not. I would argue that better distribution and participation outside the “Mag 7” would possibly be healthier for the markets in the long run.
- John Christofilos, Chief Trading Officer, AGF Investments
The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds, or investment strategies.
Commentary and data sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other news sources unless otherwise noted. The commentaries contained herein are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of April 8, 2026. It is not intended to address the needs, circumstances, and objectives of any specific investor. The content of this commentary is not to be used or construed as investment advice, as an offer to buy or sell any securities, and is not intended to suggest taking or refraining from any course of action. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication, however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF Investments accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use or reliance on the information contained herein.
This document may contain forward-looking information that reflects our current expectations or forecasts of future events. Forward-looking information is inherently subject to, among other things, risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed herein.
For Canadian investors: Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with investment fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Investment funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFI is registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFUS is a registered investment advisor with the U.S. Securities Exchange Commission. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The term AGF Investments may refer to one or more of these subsidiaries or to all of them jointly. This term is used for convenience and does not precisely describe any of the separate companies, each of which manages its own affairs.
AGF Investments entities only provide investment advisory services or offers investment funds in the jurisdiction where such firm, individuals and/or product is registered or authorized to provide such services. Investment advisory services for U.S. persons are provided by AGFUS.
® / TM The “AGF” logo and all associated trademarks are registered trademarks or trademarks of AGF Management Limited and used under license.
RO: 20260408-5375859
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.
AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.
Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, AGF has investment operations and client servicing teams on the ground in North America and Europe. AGF serves more than 800,000 investors. AGF trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol AGF.B.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
© 2026 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
