Democrats See an Opening — But So Do Republicans
Author: Greg Valliere
June 3, 2024
IT’S BACK TO POLITICS AS USUAL this week as both parties look for openings ahead of the pivotal presidential debate on June 27. Democrats will focus on reproductive rights, Republicans will take aim at Hunter Biden.
AS WE SUSPECTED LAST FRIDAY, the Donald Trump guilty verdicts didn’t have a major impact on polls. Independents appear to be slightly more supportive of Biden, while Trump’s GOP base is still rock-solid behind him. Trump’s campaign raised an astonishing sum — about $50 million — after the verdicts.
BOTH PARTIES WILL PLAY THEIR STRONG SUITS heading into the June 27 debate, which we believe may be the pivotal event of the campaign. Key issues:
REPUBLICANS HAVE AN IMMEDIATE TARGET: Jury selection begins today in Wilmington, Del., in the federal firearms case against Hunter Biden. This will be a juicy trial, with a focus on Biden’s use of crack cocaine.
A KEY ISSUE is whether Biden was clearly addicted to the drug when he bought a firearm; if he was, the case against him would be strengthened. A second trial, involving tax evasion, is set for this fall in California.
MANY LEGAL EXPERTS THINK BIDEN would be wise to simply seek a plea bargain, rather then allow these messy trials to proceed; he has no previous convictions and would likely get a suspended sentence and perhaps a fine (as will Trump). But Republicans will look for any sign of favoritism to Biden, especially since his father has already declared that Hunter committed no crime.
THE DEMOCRATS, MEANWHILE, are about to play their strongest suit. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will get a floor vote this Wednesday in the Senate on the Right to Contraception Act. The timing of this vote would come shortly before the two-year anniversary of the Supreme Court decision striking down the right to an abortion.
DEMOCRATS BELIEVE THEIR STRONGEST ISSUE this fall will be reproductive rights, with Wednesday’s vote setting the stage for more contentious debate on abortion.
REPUBLICANS WHO OPPOSE birth control are viewed as out of step with the country. Trump doesn’t oppose contraception — but his boasts that he helped to kill Roe vs. Wade are strongly opposed by moderates in states that he needs to win in November.
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