Kamala Harris, the Frontrunner
Author: Greg Valliere
August 19, 2024
WE’VE BEEN FOLLOWING U.S. POLITICS for many years, but we’ve rarely seen a momentum shift as dramatic as the one that the nation will see this coming week. Kamala Harris is now the frontrunner.
THREE BIG INTERNALS STAND OUT: Harris has added nearly a dozen points to her astonishing polling numbers in North Carolina, which has a high percentage of African-American voters. Black voters are energized.
SECOND, HARRIS NOW HAS A CLEAR LEAD among female voters. Yet Trump continues to mock Harris as a “lunatic Communist,” a juvenile taunt that actually helps Harris. Trump has legitimate policy issues to exploit – including immigration and inflation — but he persists with sophomoric insults, angering many Republican strategists.
THIRD, SHE HAS GAINED SUPPORT AMONG young people, who have suddenly become motivated – a huge change that could drive turnout for her. Of these key groups, one demographic is still lukewarm – Hispanics.
THANKS TO THESE TRENDS, Harris now leads by 3 to 6 points, roughly, in most nationwide polls.
THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD that Harris will win this election has Democrats giddy as they arrive in Chicago, but we would caution that there are two very big wild cards: First, thousands of angry pro-Palestinian protesters, eager to take to the streets this week.
AND THEN THERE’S THE ISSUE of Harris’s whereabouts. She seems determined avoid much contact with the media – but she eventually will have to discuss her views on issues like price gouging and immigration. Joe Biden avoided the press, to his detriment.
BOTTOM LINE: HARRIS PROBABLY WILL LEAVE Chicago with a clear lead, possibly 5 or 6 points. The remarkable Harris momentum eventually will level off by Labor Day, and then Trump will face his biggest challenge of the campaign – the Sept. 10 debate. Calling Harris a Communist lunatic won’t be enough for Trump.
IT’S STILL TOO EARLY TO MAKE A FINAL CALL – gaffes and scandals could quickly change the narrative. But there’s little doubt as this pivotal week begins that Harris is the frontrunner. And if her lead holds up, Republicans could have a disappointing election for House and Senate seats.
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