Waiting for June 27
Author: Greg Valliere
May 31, 2024
WE WILL VIEW EVERY POLL in the next few days with a grain of salt. It could be weeks before public opinion gels — is Donald Trump the victim of a left-wing witch hunt, or is it time for him to go, as at least three more trials loom?
THE NEXT BIG DEVELOPMENT — perhaps the biggest of the entire election — will come on June 27. Joe Biden and Trump will debate that evening, and the first presidential debate of the campaign gets big ratings — about 13 million watched the first one in the 2020 race, which solidified Biden’s status as the frontrunner. Twenty million or more may watch this time.
THE FRONTRUNNER NOW IS UNCLEAR, even after yesterday’s stunning court ruling. Our guess is that Trump will do fairly well in this weekend’s polls, then gradually fade a bit as voters grapple with the concept of a convicted felon as president.
BIDEN’S CAMPAIGN HAD NEARLY STALLED in recent weeks — imagine any recent Democratic candidate groveling for black votes — or imagine a Democrat barely leading in New York state.
WE HAVE ASSERTED REPEATEDLY that Trump is a master at playing the role of martyr, and sure enough — campaign contributions from his outraged supporters were so heavy last night that his web site crashed.
WE STILL THINK TRUMP IS THE SLIGHT FAVORITE to win the election, but the debate — and a second one on Sept. 20 — will be crucial. Despite a stuttering problem, Biden may exceed low expectations; he will be extremely well-coached. The wild card will be Trump, who could be rusty on issues, since his main focus in recent weeks has been the trial.
YOU UNDERESTIMATE TRUMP AT YOUR OWN PERIL: That’s been our mantra for the past decade. Despite his enormous flaws, he leads in most battleground states, where the key issues are the economy, inflation, illegal immigrants, fentanyl and crime. And the upcoming Hunter Biden trial won’t help the president. The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East aren’t high on the public’s list of concerns.
THE ENTHUSIASM GAP: Polls show Trump has more enthusiastic supporters; they will turn out in a hurricane to vote for him on Nov. 5. Yesterday’s verdicts make his supporters even more determined to re-elect him. Biden knows he has to make the election about Trump, starting with the June 27 debate.
BIDEN’S ADVISERS ARE CONVINCED that voters will be suffering from Trump fatigue by fall, as it becomes clear that more trials and appeals will last well into 2025. Perhaps there will be Trump fatigue, but our take is that he will maintain his narrow lead for the next month — and then the June 27 debate will set the tone for the rest of the campaign.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.
AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.
Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, AGF has investment operations and client servicing teams on the ground in North America and Europe. AGF serves more than 800,000 investors. AGF trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol AGF.B.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2024 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.